Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 11.387366 13.966493 16.847321 20.282355 24.244512 28.649062 33.892540
2026-01-04 7.771266 11.067174 15.168494 20.553036 27.334880 35.489358 45.922229
2026-01-11 5.825717 9.368900 14.170185 20.946895 30.039820 41.583306 57.081325
2026-01-18 4.619977 8.268150 13.586158 21.553616 32.797303 47.684255 68.412662
2026-01-25 3.516040 7.011825 12.488667 21.174557 34.018432 51.683279 77.086910
2026-02-01 2.831124 6.236908 11.929421 21.415110 36.007736 56.720584 87.301913
2026-02-08 2.195033 5.375006 11.058866 21.013263 36.933607 60.228013 95.490823
2026-02-15 1.674449 4.581319 10.145774 20.383797 37.385442 62.990893 102.670298
2026-02-22 1.419233 4.256891 9.998445 20.980258 39.753363 68.652811 114.229212
2026-03-01 1.116284 3.733960 9.381364 20.666358 40.586461 71.993041 122.469709
2026-03-08 0.906284 3.364664 8.994997 20.701614 41.964295 76.197868 132.129747
2026-03-15 0.669547 2.834936 8.170667 19.802011 41.643992 77.669336 137.640884
2026-03-22 0.560078 2.642139 8.081005 20.380944 44.073005 83.865851 151.039459
2026-03-29 0.449493 2.399355 7.834008 20.623571 45.934791 89.267535 163.489138
2026-04-05 0.366656 2.209696 7.673620 21.016440 48.083680 95.229288 177.040712
2026-04-12 0.306647 2.074044 7.620635 21.624591 50.663821 102.017252 192.149262
2026-04-19 0.227657 1.806139 7.150991 21.244541 51.303549 105.491816 201.968273
2026-04-26 0.181354 1.653662 6.967382 21.485717 53.159894 111.139906 215.538657
2026-05-03 0.131740 1.437556 6.537609 21.082827 53.680447 114.432539 225.271397
2026-05-10 0.090902 1.222555 6.045993 20.451721 53.666494 116.740100 233.391885
2026-05-17 0.075029 1.159082 6.042578 21.049737 56.254816 123.868136 249.940158
2026-05-24 0.052972 1.013308 5.706812 20.735020 56.866104 127.371132 260.344066
2026-05-31 0.039127 0.914401 5.512941 20.770368 58.229112 132.314297 273.384277